rss feedJapan and nuclear power
Perhaps I speak only for myself when I say that the sight of suffering borne with fortitude tends to elicit the greatest of sympathetic responses. To observe the Japanese people quietly surveying the wastelands of what once were their towns-homes, friends, neighbours, parents, children swept away in minutes- is heart-rending. Theirs is the kind of stoicism that at one time was commonly attributed to the British people. That of course, was before we were offered counsellors to persuade us from any form of grief and lawyers who could mitigate the pain by means of money. The Japanese seem to be managing without the assistance of either.
The real question however, is whether in future, they will be able to manage without the assistance of nuclear power. Japan has no great natural hydrocarbon resources, no coal, gas or oil. It is therefore, dependent on imported oil, coal and natural gas to meet the needs of its large population and its powerful industries. The development of the nuclear industry was considered an essential step towards establishing energy security. So, does this dream lie in tatters?
The nuclear industry in Japan has a long history of unsafe practices, disinformation and outright mendacity. The Japanese people have a long history of trust in their leaders and forebearance from protest. It is therefore, perfectly conceivable that the industry will ensure its survival by constructing the following case.
The stricken reactors are old and prone to accidents in a way in which their modern replacements are not. The earthquake was of an unprecedented scale and will not happen again in this millennium. In any event, the reactors were not directly harmed by the quake. In fact, they held up remarkably well.
The problem lay not with the reactors but with the vast diesel engines that drive the back-up generators. They were insufficiently protected from the waters of the Tsunami . This design fault can easily be remedied.
Despite suffering appalling damage the reactors have released little harmful radiation. It looked far worse than in fact, it was.
The Japanese might buy this line. If I had to bet on it I would say that they will. If they do not, then perhaps the observations made by the prefect of Tokyo province will capture the public mood. Shinataro Ishihara has recently described the disaster as divine retribution for the current Japanese malaise of egoism and selfishness. He has since apologised. Has he caught the public mood? If so, we might see profound changes in their society that will enable them to survive without the need for nuclear power. Frankly I doubt it. There is no evidence that the Japanese will wish to give up the trappings of modern affluence any more than the rest of us would. Without energy that affluence cannot be maintained. Without nuclear power they cannot cannot supply their energy needs.
At the moment environmental groups throughout Europe are capitalizing on the current crisis by stepping up their protests against the development of nuclear power. In response, governments are making headline-grabbing initiatives to give the false impression that policy on nuclear power is being re-appraised.
I suspect however, that at the end of the day the nuclear industry will emerge strengthened rather than fatally weakened. With some justification they can say that having stared into the abyss we have emerged relatively unscathed. Obsolete reactors built in the most earthquake troubled region of the world have endured an apocalyptic event . Design faults have been identified and can be rectified. Few people have been adversely affected , far fewer than those who will suffer as a result of man-made global warming caused by the burning of hydrocarbons.
I hate to say it but perhaps they will be right.
Robert Urquhart Collins
